Week 9 — Mon Nov 9 14:02:46 PST 2009
From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Date: Mon Nov 9 14:02:46 PST 2009
Subject: It's Monday...
...and congratulations are due to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, a mere three hours after the CBS pregame show joked about the likelihood of the Bucs repeating the Lion's 0-16 perfect season, Tampa Bay managed to put one in the wins column, becoming the last team to win its first game this season. Meanwhile, the Saints and Colts each managed to squeak out a win this week, so they're both still undefeated.
There are now five 1-7 teams and three 2-6 teams. Eight teams, with a combined record of 11-53. For the Bucs, Rams, Chiefs, Lions, Browns, Redskins, Titans and Raiders, this season is all but over and it's time to start thinking about draft picks and coaching changes. Better luck next year.
In addition to the 8-0 Colts and Saints, there are two teams that have only lost once, and another four who have only lost twice. Eight teams, with a combined record of 52-10. (soon to be 53-11, ignoring the possibility of a tie tonight). The Colts, Saints, Vikings, Broncos, Bengals, Cowboys, Patriots and Steelers are mostly in control of their own destinies, halfway through the season. There's still plenty of time left for an old fashioned choke.
The 16 teams that make up the middle of the pack? Well, that's where most of the interesting stories come from. Anyone who's screaming at you about the death of parity in the NFL hasn't been looking at the middle of the pack – which makes up HALF of the league.
NFC West: 5-3 Cardinals. 3-5 49ers.
The Arizona Cardinals went to Chicago, and made short work of the Bears' defense. Kurt Warner went back to his rhythm of quick passes and wound up throwing for five touchdowns (after five INTs last week) on the way to a 41-21 rout.
The Niners lost to Tennessee because of turnovers (four of them from second-string QB Alex Smith). San Francisco was in control of this game for most of three quarters, but they gave the game away with two fourth-quarter interceptions (including one returned 39 yards for a touchdown) and a general breakdown on offense.
The Cardinals are not playing very consistent football, and the Niners are at least a little better than their 3-5 record would indicate While the Cardinals are in control right now, it's not a complete runaway, yet... but with the Chicago Bears coming to town on Thursday, the Niners need to get their shit together fast, or they'll see yet another season slip away from them.
The niners also better be spending some time scouting quarterbacks. If they had a modicum of passing talent, they'd be a 5-3 team right now.
NFC North: 7-1 Vikings. 4-4 Packers, 4-4 Bears.
This week, the Buccaneers put on creamsicle-colored mid-70s throwback uniforms (an era where the Bucs were also a terrible team), decided to start rookie QB Josh Freeman (the third QB to have started a game for Tampa this year), and stunned the Packers 38-28 to win their first game at home since November of last year. This one's really due to Packers quarterback Aaron Rogers, who seems to struggle when his protection breaks down. Rogers threw three interceptions and was sacked six times. Those sacks are not because his offensive line is bad, it's because he hasn't learned when to throw the ball away. He's getting sacked seconds after most quarterbacks would have chucked the ball to the sidelines, or he's trying to get rid of the ball by throwing marginal passes into the arms of waiting defenders. Neither one wins ballgames.
The Vikings are in, if they can keep Brett Favre healthy for just a few more weeks. He's played better football this year than he has in some time, and the weaknesses in Green Bay (inexperience) and Chicago (defense, especially against the pass) are likely to keep either team from finishing better than 8-8.
NFC South: 8-0 Saints. 5-3 Falcons.
So, the Saints are undefeated, have scored an impressive 303 points, and have a fairly light season ahead of them (they play Tampa Bay twice, and St. Louis, and Washington). The NFC South is probably theirs.
However, Atlanta is a very decent team, especially when playing at home, and at the very least is in the running for a wild card. The Saints and Falcons will play each other on the 13th of December, in Atlanta. That game might actually be the one to decide the division.
This week, like many other teams before them, The Falcons had no problem beating Washington 31-17. This game was nearly unwatchable, no matter which side you were rooting for.
NFC East: 6-2 Cowboys, 5-3 Eagles, 5-4 Giants
Wow did this division get interesting. The Giants just lost their fourth straight (this time, 21-20 to the Chargers, on a touchdown pass with 20 seconds to go. The Cowboys turn out to be a much better team without T.O. And even the Eagles are playing respectable football, though they're not using Michael Vick as much as anyone expected.
The Giants have a bye this coming week (this is the last bye week for any team, Thursday games start this Thursday), and they're hoping that it'll be the break that Eli Manning's game needs. He hasn't played well since his foot injury in week 6.
And last night, the Cowboys comfortably beat the Eagles 20-16. The game was fairly close until the fourth quarter, when the Eagles fell apart and gave the game away. Donovan McNabb threw two interceptions, and was only 4 of 12 on third down attempts. The Eagles are a good enough team to be competitive, but not good enough to be competitive at the highest level, and it shows, time and time again.
AFC West: 6-1 Broncos, 5-3 Chargers
The Broncos collection of rookies, both on and off the field, continues to surprise, and they've already forgotten about Jay Cutler in the mile high city. By all accounts, the Broncos appear to be for real. But, they haven't played their 8th game yet and have upcoming matchups with Indy, Philly and the Giants. They're in control, but not by much – especially if they lose tonight.
The Chargers did get fairly lucky a few times in their win over the Giants, and they'll have to contend with Philly next week, and Cincinnati and Dallas in back-to-back weeks in December, so this is not an easy schedule for them either. Because these are the Chargers, a classic late-season meltdown is never far from anyone's mind.
AFC South: 8-0 Colts, 5-4 Texans, 4-4 Jags
The Colts are 8-0 without a meaningful running game. Can that continue?
This week, Colts beat the Texans by three points, when the Texans missed a field goal with time running out. If the NFL graded on a curve, the Texans would've won this game. Of course, the NFL doesn't grade on a curve, that's what the point spread is for.
The Texans are better than most people realize, and might be a wild card team. It's unlikely that they'll catch the Colts, but when it comes down to that last wild-card spot, we might be looking at the Texans, Jets and Ravens – and Houston doesn't look too bad when compared to that group.
AFC East: 6-2 Patriots, 4-4 Jets
The Patriots have the benefit of a weak division this year, with the Dolphins and Bills tied at 3-5, and only the 4-4 Jets looking like a vague threat. The Jets have away games in New England and Indy ahead of them, and finish the season against Cincinnati. It's not an easy road ahead and the hard games are spread out, so the team will need to stay healthy.
On the other hand, the Patriots' next three games will define their postseason. They play Indy next Sunday night (just in time for TV ratings sweeps), then host the Jets, then go to New Orleans. If New England wins two of these three games, they'll win their division. Considering they'll also play Buffalo, Jacksonville Miami and Carolina, it seems likely they'll win the division anyway.
AFC North: 6-2 Bengals, 5-2 Steelers, 4-4 Ravens
The Ravens have a discipline problem (manifesting itself as a penalty problem), and are really only in the running mathematically. This week, they lost to the Bengals, for the second time this season, 17-7. The Bengals are currently 4-0 in the division, and are no longer have to convince anyone that they're for real.
The Steelers play the Broncos tonight, and the Bengals and Steelers play each other next Sunday. The Steelers need to win both of these games, or they'll find themselves fighting for a wild card instead of fighting for the division.
And that brings us to tonight's game...
And wow should it be a good one.
The Game:
Tonight, the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers go to Denver, Colorado to take on the 6-1 Broncos on high-tech turf of Invesco Field at Mile High. It's hard to grow grass in Denver in December, so the Broncos have built a DD GrassMaster hybrid system around a heated semi-hydroponic system under their field. The heating system keeps the four specialized types of Kentucky bluegrass (supplied by Graff's Turf Farms) growing well into the postseason... and the polypropylene blades of plastic sushi grass sewn into the sod by the GrassMaster Zamboni keeps the surface from turning into soup during a thunderstorm.
This game is a must-win for both teams. The Steelers need to win to stay tied with the Bengals for the lead in the AFC North. The Broncos need to win to keep control of the AFC West. The two teams play different kinds of football. Pittsburgh relies on a huge imposing defense (especially against the run) and a consistent, if unspectacular, offense based on a mix of physical, pounding runs behind the offensive line and mid-range passing. Denver is more of a finesse team, with more interesting offensive formations and blitz packages.
Because of the Pittsburgh run defense, expect Denver to throw the ball towards Brandon Marshall quite a bit tonight. This will set up more than a few matchups with Ike Taylor in the secondary, and will lead to some highlight-reel worthy plays.
I know that this list is disproportionately populated with Broncos fans, and that there's at least one person reading who will relish the opportunity to utter (or possibly slur) the words “Touchdown Steelers” one more time. Come on out and see what should be a great game.
The Line:
The Steelers are favored by two and a half. The over/under is 40.
Last week, the smart money won. It is now 12-3 for a 52.7% ROI. Over the same timeframe, the S&P 500 has gone up 5.6% and the Dollar has gone down 2.9% against the Euro.
This week, the Smart Money takes the Broncos and the Over.
The Bar:
Big games require Big TVs, and these guys have the biggest in town. Except for the soup, they have better food than you'd expect, too.
Pete's Tavern
128 King Street (between 2nd and 3rd. Across from Pac Bell/AT&T park)
Steps from the K/T, N, and the 76 busses.
Within a block of the 10, 30, and 45.
Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?