Week 7 — Mon Oct 26 12:49:19 PDT 2009
From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Date: Mon Oct 26 12:49:19 PDT 2009
Subject: It's Monday...
...and apparently this was the week of the blowout.
Yes ladies and gentlemen, no fewer than seven NFL games this week were decided by three touchdowns or more. As the league moves further away from the idea of parity, we're going to be seeing more weeks like this.
The Bengals went to Chicago, and won 45-10. San Diego torched the Chiefs 37-7, Indy went to St. Louis and routed the Rams 42-6, New England won 35-7 in Tampa, The Jets shut out Oakland 38-0. None of these games was especially notable, they all were essentially over during the first half. With the exception of Bengals/Bears, none of these games was expected to be close.
Houston hosted San Francisco this week, and came away with a three point win, 24-21. At halftime, the Texans held a 21-0 lead, and Niners QB Shawn Hill had thrown for fewer than 50 yards in the half (the entire team netted just one yard of offense during the first quarter). During the break, coach Mike did the only thing he could do to turn the game around... he benched Hill and put in reliever Alex Smith. Smith played solid, consistent football for the second half, engineered three touchdown drives, and was just one play away from getting into field goal range and a shot at overtime. But, it was not to be. With 36 seconds left, on a fourth and ten (that should've been a fourth and five, prior to the stupid delay-of-game penalty caused by a slow personnel change) Alex Smith threw a poorly chosen pass up the middle. It was intercepted, and the game was over. San Francisco falls to 3-3, and has lost their hold on the NFC West. Houston climbs to 4-3. Next week, Houston goes to Buffalo. San Francisco goes into the difficult part of their season, starting with a trip to Indianapolis.
There is a widely held myth in the NFL that West coast teams have a hard time winning in the Eastern time zone. The Arizona Cardinals are the most commonly cited example of this. This week, they again disproved the theory when they won their third game in a row on the East coast, beating the New York Giants 24-17, on the backs of the Cardinals' defense. The Cardinals were bringing all kinds of unusual blitzes, getting to Eli Manning constantly, while playing man-to-man down the field. And how did that work out for them? Eli threw three interceptions, 18 incomplete passes, and was sacked three times. He never got the opportunity to light up the (short-manned) secondary, because by the time his deep receivers were looking for the ball, Eli was staring at the astroturf, or had been rushed to throw to someone in the flat. Expect to see these blitzes from other teams that play the Giants later in the year – Arizona has again shown a team's weak spot, on a nationally broadcast game, and everybody's watching the film. The Giants fall to 5-2, which is still good enough to stay on top of the NFC East. The Cardinals go to 4-2, putting them on top of the NFC West. These teams will see each other again.
The New Orleans Saints went to Miami and put on the game of the week. Prior to this game, the Saints hadn't been behind at any point this season. In Miami, they were behind for most of the game. The Dolphins had a 22 point lead before New Orleans had even picked up its second first down of the game. Drew Brees turned the ball over four times. The Saints' defense let the Dolphins score 34 points, even with a backup quarterback. Somehow, the Saints managed to score 46, including 22 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, to win a game that they did not deserve. The Saints are 6-0, and host Atlanta next Monday night. The 2-4 Dolphins go to New York to see the Jets.
The Atlanta Falcons went to Dallas, and discovered one of the home-field-advantage factors that the new stadium has: the glass wall behind the West end zone. In the afternoon in the fall, the sun sets through this window, which also means the quarterback and place kickers are staring into it during late game drives. There are supposed to be curtains that cover this window in this situation, but because the sun affected Atlanta more than the home team, the curtain didn't budge. You can bet that other coaches will be thinking about this when they win a coin toss in Dallas. Dallas ended up winning 37-21, mostly by outlasting the Falcons. Atlanta's difficulty throwing into the sun probably played a role in this, and you can expect the league office to weigh in on the curtain in Texas. (Not that it matters much, the Cowboys will gladly pay a fine every week if it means they can avoid providing a fair playing field.) Next week the 4-2 Cowboys go to Seattle, and the Falcons go to New Orleans.
So, what's the playoff picture?
In the AFC, the Colts and Broncos are both 6-0, and unless they fall apart in the second half of the season, they'll get in (they shouldn't have any trouble finishing out the season with a better record than Texans and Chargers respectively). The Bengals, Steelers, Jets and Patriots are all looking pretty good as well. While it's far too early to say that these are the six AFC playoff teams, when there is a credible threat from Baltimore, and the permanent possibility of a late-season meltdown in Denver (or a quarterback injury in Indy or New England), but at this point, after seven weeks of play, there are so many obviously poor teams in the AFC that it's not all that difficult to spot the likely winners.
In the NFC, things are a lot closer. Only the 6-0 Saints are ahead of their division by more than one game (and they play 4-2 Atlanta (#2) next week). At least ten teams are very much in the running for the six playoff slots, and there's always the possibility of a surprise coming from Philly or Seattle. In the NFC, the only teams playing for the draft pick are the 0-7 Rams, 0-7 Bucs, 1-5 Lions, and to a certain extent, the 2-4 Redskins. That's one craptastic team in each division... every other team in the NFC still has a good chance of playing in January – as long as they don't keep losing.
And that brings us to tonight's game.
The Game
Tonight, the 2-4 Washington Redskins host the 3-2 Philadelphia Eagles, on the patented TifSport Certified Bermuda grass of Fedex Field.
When this game was scheduled, it looked like it would be a great one, between two teams struggling to stay on top of the NFC East. Instead, it turns out to be a game between two teams that are struggling to stay out of the bottom of the NFC East, and thus, stay relevant. Washington is falling apart, mostly due to constant meddling from the team's owner (and the utter uselessness of head coach Jim Zorn, but until owner Dan Snyder learns not to interfere with football operations, no decent head coach will agree to work for him. Zorn sucks, but he's seemingly the only person who'll take the job, even in this economy).
A loss for Washington will demoralize the team going into their bye week. Their season is already almost a total loss, and to lose this game at home would all but end it (and whatever is left of Zorn's coaching career). A loss for Philly will put them two games behind the Giants, just in time to host those Giants after a short week. Since this game is a must-win for both teams, it should be a pretty decent one.
The Line
The Eagles are favored by seven and a half. The over/under is 37.
Last week, the Smart Money went 2-0. It is now 10-3 for the season, for a 46.85% ROI. The S&P 500 has gone up 2.9% this season, while the US Dollar has lost 2.0%. This week, the Smart Money takes the over. Rather than taking the Pete Rose Bettor's Exemption, the Smart Money isn't going to speculate on the winner of the game.
The Bar
DC-native Matt found this one a few weeks back, and while I'd hoped to do a recon trip prior to now, it still seems like an exceptionally appropriate venue for this week's game. This locals' bar, strangely situated on the edge of fisherman's wharf, turns out to be San Francisco's official home of expatriate Redskins fans. It's October, and the tourists have all gone home (leaving the perfect SF weather for the locals), so this is a good week to be near the wharf... especially if you're in a bar full of dedicated fans unabashedly cheering for an uninspiring team.
Watch out for the “Cheap Bastard” menu, full of $2 shots.
Red Jack Saloon
131 Bay Street (near Stockton)
Steps from the 9x/9bx busses.
A very short walk from the 47, 10, F train, and the Powell/Mason cablecar.
Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?