Week 16 — Mon Dec 28 14:28:10 PST 2009
From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Date: Mon Dec 28 14:28:10 PST 2009
Subject: It's Monday...
...and the 1972 Miami Dolphins are hungover this morning.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the last undefeated team fell this week, and one of the remaining boomer-esque NFL traditions went down last night... The 1972 Dolphins toasted the 2009 Colts first loss.
The legend has it that whenever the last undefeated team in the NFL is beaten, the remaining members of the 1972 Dolphins get together and have a toast, to celebrate that they are still the only team to have a complete, perfect season (they went 14-0, winning the Super Bowl). It's real classy to toast someone else's defeat, guys. We know you guys had a perfect year, and that you feel nobody should ever be as perfect as you.. but really?
Of course, the 2007 Patriots went 18-0, but lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl, for an 18-1 season. The 1984 49ers and the 1985 Bears also went 18-1 for their respective seasons.
This week, the playoffs mostly came into focus. Here's what they look like right now:
NFC:
-
New Orleans (13-2)
- Minnesota* (11-3, playing tonight)
- Philadelphia* (11-4)
- Arizona (10-5)
- Green Bay (10-5)
- Dallas* (10-5)
And here's how they can change:
The NFC East title (and probably seed #3) will go to the winner of the Philly/Dallas game next Sunday.
Minnesota can only guarantee its first round bye if it wins both of its remaining games (tonight against Chicago, next Sunday against the NY Giants). If it loses either of those games, it'll open the door for Philly to take the #2 position (if the Eagles win in Dallas), and make Minnesota play at home during wild-card weekend.
If Minnesota loses both of those two games, and finishes 11-5, the #2 position could go to Philadelphia, Arizona or Dallas.
Green Bay is going to Arizona this Sunday. It is not at all unlikely that they'll stay in Arizona and play the Cardinals again in the desert, on wild card weekend. Meanwhile, if Philly wins in Dallas this week, then both teams will likely travel to Philadelphia to play each other again.
AFC:
-
Indianapolis (14-1)
-
San Diego (12-3)
- New England* (10-5)
- Cincinnati* (10-5)
The first two seeds are set in stone. With the 42-17 beatdown that the Chargers gave Tennessee on Christmas Day, they locked up a first round bye. This Sunday's matchup between San Diego and Washington is meaningless to both teams.
Indy had locked up their home field advantage two weeks ago, and to nobody's surprise, they took out most of their starters this week (with a 15-10 lead, against the Jets, who needed the win to stay in the hunt). The end result was that the Jets won 29-15, and that Peyton Manning's reliever (Curtis Painter) got overwhelmed with boos at home, and the Jets have a fairly good shot at making the playoffs.
Indy plays at Buffalo, in a game will be blacked out in Buffalo, and wouldn't even be on TV in Indianapolis if the NFL didn't require it.
Seeds #3 and #4 will depend on how the Bengals and Patriots finish out their seasons. Both of them have won their divisions, so they'll take these two spots, it just depends on the order. The Bengals play the Jets in NY, and the Patriots play in Houston.
Seeds #5 and #6 are still up in the air: Baltimore, NY Jets, Denver, Houston and Pittsburgh all have a fighting chance. Miami and Jacksonville aren't entirely out of the running, but it'd take a near miracle.
Baltimore and the Jets are both playing “if you win, you're in; if you lose, you're out” games on Sunday (Baltimore is playing in Oakland, and the Jets are hosting the Bengals in the Sunday Night game – the final game of the regular season, and probably the final game in Giants Stadium).
8-7 Denver hosts Kansas City
8-7 Houston hosts New England
and 8-7 Pittsburgh plays at 7-8 Miami.
For those three 8-7 teams, these are “lose and you're definitely out, win and you might still be out” games (it depends on what happens with Baltimore and the Jets). The scenarios are relatively complicated, so again, I'll be making a flowchart to explain them (look for this tomorrow). The short summary is that if Baltimore or the Jets lose, one of these teams will get in, and if Baltimore and the Jets both lose, two of these teams will get in.
Week 17 has never been this relevant. The seasons were shorter the last time that so many playoff spots (and seeds) were still in play during the final week.
...
Other football-related thoughts at the end of week 16:
Peyton Manning may have been unhappy with the outcome of the game yesterday, but he didn't disagree with his coach's decision to pull him (and many other starters) from the game. Last week, Brett Favre had a heated conversation with his coach, and refused to leave the game when his team had basically already lost. I give Manning a hard time in the weekly newsletter on a pretty regular basis, but he showed a lot of class this week – much more than his fans who booed Chris Painter relentlessly.
The Chargers seem to be one of the more frightening teams right now, because they seem to be getting better, week after week... just as things seem to be on the decline in places like Cincinnati and Denver. The Colts are perennially frightening, despite not having any meaningful running game.
Baltimore complains about the officiating quite a bit, and this does not endear the Ravens to the officials who are in control of the game. The Ravens do have a legitimate beef, they really do seem to be on the wrong end of a lot of bad or missed calls. However, it's not nearly as bad as they believe it is, and this week, they need to shut up and play football, because their attitude will only irritate the referees. They're playing in Oakland (a team known for irritating the referees). If they can't beat the Raiders (with Charlie Ware as QB), they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.
Shawn Suisham was fired by the Redskins two weeks ago, after losing the New Orleans game, and picked up by Dallas. This week, he kicked a 23 yard field goal and two extra points (and was relentlessly boo'ed by the Washington crowd, some of whom stayed to watch the 17-0 stinker of a shutout). He started his career in Dallas, until getting fired there in the middle of the 2006 season. Washington picked him up in 2006. This means that in both 2006 and 2009 Shawn Suisham not only played for two teams, but he played for the same two teams. Anybody know the last time that happened?
Denver's near-comeback yesterday (they lost 30-27 to the Eagles) puts their fate in someone else's hands. After such a strong 6-0 start this season, they need to beat the Chiefs, and get quite a bit of help from other teams, or their season will be over. If they lose to the Chiefs, they'll have gone from 6-0 to 8-8, and personnel changes will likely be impending.
Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder finally hired a General Manager to run the team. The guy is Bruce Allen, son of former Redskins coach George Allen, and former GM of both the Raiders and the Buccaneers. Bruce Allen and Jon Gruden have worked together quite a bit over the last decade, and although Gruden says that he's committed to being in the broadcast booth next season, I'll bet he's still returning calls from DC. Jim Zorn will be fired. Jason Campbell might be.
From Dec 1 – Jan 4, there's a billboard near one of the I-880 entrances that you can take from the Oakland Coliseum (it's the more hidden entrance that's more likely to be used by insiders and season ticket holders and residents of Alameda island.) It implores Al Davis to hire a GM. He should take the hint, but he won't.
It costs about $5,500 to rent space on a billboard on the Nimitz freeway for a month.
And with that, let's go to tonight's game...
The Game
Tonight, the 11-3 (and trying to hang on to their #2 seed) Minnesota Vikings host the 5-9 (and eliminated in week 14) Chicago Bears on the Fieldturf surface inside the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. The Metrodome is the only stadium in the NFL that has had three different fake grass surfaces, made by three different manufacturers. SuperTurf in the 80s, AstroTurf in the 90s, and FieldTurf today.
This game is important to the Vikings, who need to win to hang onto their #2 seed and first round bye. It is not meaningful to the Bears, beyond the considerable bragging rights.
The Line
Minnesota is favored by 7.5. The over/under is 41.
Last week, the Smart Money went 2-0. It is now 16-9 for the season, representing a 22.2% ROI, and guaranteeing a profitable season. In the same time, the S&P 500 has gone up 8.7% and the US dollar has gone up 1.2% against the Euro.
This week, the Smart Money takes the Over.
The Bar
It's big and should be fairly empty today. Happy hour runs until 7:00, and they might have the best nachos of any bar in town...
Pete's Tavern
128 King Street (between 2nd and 3rd)
Steps from the T and N trains. Within a block of the 30, 45 and 10 busses.
This is the last MNF of the season.
Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?