Week 16 — Mon Dec 22 15:20:33 PST 2008
From: JeffTo: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...
...and can you believe that this is week 16, and it's still unclear who'll play in January?
Yes ladies and gentlemen, as the NFL regular season winds down, we've found ourselves with a few interesting stories of teams that have far outperformed expectations, and several games that are still relevant to the playoff picture (including tonight's). Plus, we've got not only an impending pre-playoff game (where the winner is in and the loser is out), but the ultimate grudge match coming up in the next week. Yes... for the first time in years, Week 17 is going to be exciting.
But first, let's talk about this week.
Let's start with a huge congratulations to 10-5 Atlanta Falcons. This time last year, their quarterback was about to be incarcerated, coach Patrino won the douchebag award by defecting to the NCAA without even having the decency to tell his players in person, and the Falcons finished the year 4-12 with no coach, quarterback, or direction. Most people watching figured that there'd be four or five years of rebuilding in Atlanta -- they were not expecting the superstar triad of general manager Thomas Dimitroff, coach Mike Smith and rookie QB Matt Ryan... none of whom were involved with the Falcons when the season ended last year.
This week, the Falcons beat the Minnesota Vikings 24-17 in Minneapolis, to clench a playoff berth (and also to keep the Chicago Bears in the running). The difference in this game? Fumbles. The Vikings put the ball on the turf SEVEN times (turning it over four of those). It is very difficult to win when you're not able to hold on to the ball, especially when playing against a team with a strong dynamic offense like the Falcons. Watch out for Atlanta, they're better than most teams expect.
The Vikings can get in with a win at home against the Giants (10:00am Sunday), or by watching Chicago lose either of their next two games (tonight at home, next Sunday in Houston).
Oh, and 2007 douchie winner Bobby Petrino's new team, the Arizona Razorbacks? They finished 5-7, and are not going to play in any Bowl game this year.
Oakland beat Houston 27-16 this week, in what was probably the Raiders' best-played game of the year. Too bad nobody got to watch it. Between the limited appeal of these teams, the complete irrelevance to the playoffs, the rainstorm, and the local TV blackout, this game was on fewer screens than any other this week, and had the lowest attendance of any game in the country. There were more than 20,000 empty seats at the coliseum.
Of course, that other Texas team lost their final game in the stadium that they've called home since 1971, as the Baltimore Ravens dispatched the Cowboys 33-24, to an TV audience of dozens on Saturday night. Wait, you didn't realize there was a game on Saturday?
The NFL network's experiment with Saturday night games continues to be a disaster. A hint: your network doesn't have the ability to field one decent set of commentators for your eight game package -- how on earth did you expect to staff TWO games at once, when your second string team only comes out once a year?
But the NFL is too stubborn to just license the play-by-play from Westwood One, they need to prove that the league can do it all (including owning the distribution channel). Even the cameramen were awful (guys, learn to look for the play-action pass, and make sure there's a camera on the line for every down, so at least when you blow it in real-time, there's a replayable angle). Of course, the best of the NFL's camerapeople all work for NFL Films, so you shouldn't expect A-grade work from any TV camera operated by an NFL employee. Sadly, it seems that even C-grade work is too much for these guys.
It's time to move the Thursday games back to TNT (or heck, how about ABC, who could put it on one of the HD2 channels after January), and dump the Saturday game.
With the win, the Ravens go to 10-5. They can get in by beating Jacksonville in Baltimore on Sunday at 1:15, or by watching New England lose in Buffalo (Sunday at 10). With the loss, Dallas falls to 9-6. They can still get in by winning in Philly (Sunday, 1:15).
The Titans/Steelers matchup this week was advertised as being one of the games to watch this week, and it didn't disappoint. In the end, the Titans won 31-14, but it was a closer game than the score reveals (It was 10-7 at the half, and 14-17 for much of the second half). With the win, the Titans now have the best record in the AFC, and will be playing at home throughout the playoffs. It is especially notable that the Titans played this game with a defensive line made up almost entirely of second-string players. Their bench is one of the deepest in the league, and that's going to be a big factor in January.
Philadelphia got shut down by the Washington Redskins' defense, losing 10-3 after being stopped in mid-air literally inches from the touchdown, as the clock ran out. Philly is still in the playoff hunt, even though Washington got eliminated when Atlanta won. The difference? Philly's 13-13 tie with the Bengals, back in November.
New England crushed the Arizona Cardinals 47-7 in a blizzard. The Cardinals might be the worst team in football that's going to the playoffs. The Patriots might be the best team that sits out. The NCAA fans who bitch about the unfairness of the BCS and clamor for divisions and playoffs would be well served by remembering this scenario. The 8-7 Cardinals were already in, this loss is meaningless to them. To get in, the 10-5 Patriots need to win their next game (in Buffalo), AND need to watch either Miami or Baltimore lose.
There's another team that can go 8-8 and still make the post-season: San Diego. As recently as last week, I said that they were only of interest to the statisticians. Well, apparently I was wrong about that. See, either San Diego or Denver will win the AFC West... and they'll do it by winning next Sunday night's game, which is the last game of the 2008 regular season. (You can thank the NFL's flexible schedule rules for making this one a night game -- this game was originally scheduled for 10:00 am, until NBC decided that they wanted to make it the national game for the week).
This is because 7-8 San Diego has inexplicably won their last three games in a row (including this week's 41-24 thumping of Tampa Bay), while 8-7 Denver has lost three of their last five games(including this week's 30-23 loss to the Bills). Next Sunday, they play each other. The winner keeps playing for at least another week. The loser goes home. It's like a playoff game, but a week early, and it's a great game on which to end the regular season.
But what about the Grudge Match?
Next week's grudge match is the 1:15 (Pacific time) matchup between the Jets and the Dolphins. If the Dolphins win, they're in. If the Jets win, they'll still need some help to get in. But that's not the story of this game. The story is Chad Pennington. Last year, Pennington was the starting QB of the Jets, until he was benched for his incredibly poor performance through the first eight weeks of the season. This August, he was fired, to make room for Brett Favre. In the offseason, Miami (who finished 1-15 last season -- at the bottom of the NFL) picked up Chad's contract, and completely redesigned their offense. Beating all expectations, Pennington has led Miami to a 10-5 record so far. If they win next week, not only will they make the playoffs (and knock the Jets out), but Miami will also set a record for the biggest turnaround year (winning 10 more games than the previous year). So... can you imagine the satisfaction that Chad would get if he beats his old team, in New Jersey, and takes his new team to the playoffs?
I'll bet that Chad is warming up his middle finger already.
The Playoffs:
In: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Giants, Arizona, Indianapolis, Carolina, Atlanta
One of these will get in: Denver or San Diego
Two of these teams will get in: Jets, Miami, New England, Baltimore.
And two of these teams: Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas, Tampa Bay and possibly Philly
Because of the inherent complexity of this week's playoff scenarios, it's easiest to describe it in flowchart form: http://doobie.com/monday/2008_Playoffs.pdf (feel free to share this link, or print it and post it in the John, or whatever)
Here are the (huge number of) relevant games, for playoff selection. Other games are important to the seeding, and for home-field advantage, and the outcome of tonight's game could make two others irrelevant...
Denver @ San Diego 5:15 Sunday
Dallas @ Philadelphia 1:15 Sunday
Miami @ Jets 1:15 Sunday
Giants @ Minnesota 10:00 Sunday
Jacksonville @ Baltimore 10:00 Sunday
New England @ Buffalo 10:00 Sunday
Oakland @ Tampa Bay 10:00 Sunday
Chicago @ Houston 10:00 Sunday
and
Green Bay @ Chicago 5:15 Tonight.
Which brings us to tonight's game...
The Game:
Tonight the 5-9 Green Bay Packers go to Soldier field to take on the 8-6 Chicago Bears, in a game that's extremely important for the Bears and the Vikings. The grass underfoot at Soldier Field is made possible by more than twenty miles of under-turf tubing that is constantly filled with warm water, keeping the roots toasty warm even as the mercury falls. It is expected to be about 4 degrees at kickoff, and curiously, it will start getting warmer late into the evening -- as the snowstorm approaches.
If Chicago loses tonight, they are out of the playoffs (and the Vikings are in). The Packers are already out.
The Line:
The Bears are favored by 4.5. The over/under is 40.5.
Last week, the Smart Money won. It is now 15-10 for the season, and has clinched a winning record for the year. This represents a 14.5% ROI. The S&P 500 has gone down 29.2% during the regular season.
This week, the Smart Money takes the under.
The Bar:
This week, it seems like everybody's finishing up their holiday preparations (or have already left town), so despite the fact that this is the last Monday night game of the year, we're not going to do the normal bar gathering.
Have a lovely holiday, and watch this space. There will be at least one more get-together for a playoff game.