Week 14 — Mon Dec 8 17:16:30 PST 2008
From: JeffTo: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...
...and congratulations are in order to three NFL teams.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Cardinals finally got to open those champagne bottles that they've been carting around for the last two weeks. So did the Titans and the Giants. All three teams clinched their divisions this week. There are four current Cardinals who were alive when the team last won a division, in 1975. Only Kurt Warner was old enough to have said "pigskin" at the time.
And, while those three teams made the playoffs, several others saw the last of their playoff hopes disappear.
Houston, who hadn't won a game on the road this year, went to Green Bay and beat the Packers 24-21, on a last second field goal, in sub-freezing temperatures. Curiously, the Texans turned over the ball four times, and yet still stayed in the game. With the loss, Green Bay falls to 5-8 -- not mathematically eliminated, but close enough. They did better with Aaron Rodgers than most were expecting, but this year was destined to be a rebuilding year from the start.
Washington went to Baltimore and got beat 24-10, primarily on the strength of the Ravens' defense. The Redskins are now 7-6, and are 1-4 for their last five games. They're still just barely in the wild card race, but between the momentum effect, injuries, and the sloppy way they've been playing, there's no way that they'll still be relevant when they come to San Francisco on the 28th. Move them to a disappointing "Fooling themselves".
Meanwhile, San Francisco stunned the Jets on Sunday in Candlestick. 24-14. The score doesn't really tell the story of this game. The 'niners outplayed the Jets at all positions, at nearly all points of the game, and could've won by a much larger margin. There is a much-missed sense of excitement surrounding the newly revitalized 49ers, as players and fans alike look at Mike Singletary and say "that dude's just what the team needs". Hopefully the York family (the owners) agree. San Francisco is 5-8, and they're trying against long odds to finish as an 8-8 team.
The Dallas Cowboys went to Pittsburgh and lost 20-13 in especially shitty weather. The Cowboys led 13-3 going into the fourth quarter, and started playing to protect the lead and run out the clock. They did not count on the Steelers defense stepping it up. Between the start of the fourth quarter and the two minute warning, the Cowboys got only one first down. Meanwhile, the Steelers scored 10 points and tied the game with 2:10 to go. Twenty four seconds later, Tony Romo throws an interception that's returned for the game winning touchdown (and you'll be seeing it on the highlight reels when Romo loses his job in Dallas). The Steelers, at 10-3, will almost certainly get a wild card spot, if they don't win the AFC North outright. The Cowboys fall to 8-5, and brought new meaning to the word "choke". The Cowboys are still fighting to stay in, but it just got a whole lot easier for Atlanta, Philly, or one of the 7-6 teams to knock them out.
Donovan McNabb has looked surprisingly good the last two weeks. This week he led the Eagles to a 20-14 win over the heavily favored Giants. The first half belonged to the Eagles' defense, though a blocked field goal in the closing seconds shifted the momentum somewhat. With the win (and the Dallas loss), the Eagles barely stay in the wild card race. The Giants clinched their division when Romo threw that interception in Pittsburgh.
The Miami Dolphins are still very relevant, too. This week, they rather casually ended Buffalo's playoff dreams, with a 16-3 win in Toronto. Yes, Toronto -- where the Bills will play one "home" game each season for the next five years. With that win, the 8-5 Dolphins are in a three-way tie for the lead in the AFC East, and the 6-7 Bills are essentially done for the season.
So, what exactly is the playoff situation?
In: Titans, Giants, Cardinals
Essentially in: Steelers, Broncos
Almost in: Tampa Bay, Carolina (more on this in the "The Game" section)
And lots of the rest are up in the air...
In the AFC East, there's a three-way tie at 8-5, between the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins.
The AFC North has the 10-3 Steelers and the 9-4 Ravens.
The 9-4 Colts are looking for an AFC wild card.
The NFC North has the 8-5 Vikings in the lead, with 7-6 Bears right behind them.
The NFC South has the Bucs and Panthers tied at 9-3, and playing tonight (ahem!)
The Falcons and Cowboys are 8-5. The Eagles are 7-5-1, and are just hanging on. They're all still fighting for the Wild card.
That's seven teams, for four NFC spots, and six teams for four AFC spots, with three weeks to go. In the immortal words of John Madden, "If you win, you're in. If you lose, you don't deserve to be in." So, when do these teams play each other?
Next Sunday, the Bucs go to Atlanta and the Steelers go to Baltimore.
On The 20th (a Saturday night game): the Ravens go to Dallas.
On The 21st, the Falcons go to Minnesota. (Jets @ Seattle might be interesting, too)
On the 28th, the Jets host Miami in a game that might decide which one of them goes to the playoffs.
And then, there is tonight's game...
The Game:
Tonight, the 9-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers go to Charlotte to take on the 9-3 Carolina Panthers, on the hybrid bermuda grass surface of Bank of America Stadium. These two teams are tied for first place in the NFC South, and the winner of this game will go into the final three weeks with a big advantage, both in the division and in the wild card race (they'll probably move to "Essentially In"). This game is huge, for both teams. It should be a great one.
The Line:
Carolina is favored by three. The over/under is 38.5.
Last week, the Smart Money lost again, and is considering applying for a Federal bailout. It is now 13-9 for the season with an ROI of 12.8%. The S&P 500 has gone down 26.5% this NFL season.
Tonight, the Smart Money takes Tampa Bay and the Over.
The Bar:
When you're too drunk to stand up, you don't want to eat cole slaw with a fork or focus on individual french fries. Nope... you want them _on_ your sandwich -- and it'd be easier if you could order it by just stating your favorite meat. If only you were in Pittsburgh[1].
Giordano Brothers
303 Columbus (@ Broadway)
Steps from the 20, 41 and 12 busses.
A brief stroll from the 30, 45, 9X
The sandwiches alone are worth the trip. When you throw in the fact that the owners are Steelers fans who just saw their team beat Dallas[2], how could you go anywhere else?
Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?
-Jeff
[1] Specifically, Primanti Bros., open 24 hours. http://www.primantibrothers.com/
[2] From Peter King's column today: "This game will be [...] celebrated like few other Steelers wins ever -- and I mean that, because in neo-natal units across western Pennsylvania, nurses coo babies to sleep by cursing the Cowboys."