Week 11 — Mon Nov 17 14:21:49 PST 2008
From: JeffDate: Mon Nov 17 14:21:49 PST 2008
Subject: It's Monday...
...and The Cowboys just had to go and make things interesting in the NFC East, didn't they.
But before we get to that, ladies and gentlemen, let's acknowledge a great moment in betting history that happened on Saturday in Palo Alto. The USC Trojans had come to town as 24 point favorites. So... at the end of the game, the Stanford Cardinals found themselves on the 18 yard line, down 28 points, with three seconds to go. They lined up for a field goal... and the home crowd booed them. Some may say that the crowd wanted the team to do the sportsmanlike thing, and kneel down rather than put some meaningless points on the board. Others may notice that 28 minus 3 is only 25.
The USC coaching staff saw the FG unit lined up, and said "Well, if you're going to be pricks and run up the score, we're going to ice your kicker: TIME OUT!!!" The Stanford response? "If you're going to ice the kicker, we'll send the offense back in." Which they did... to the tune of an 18 yard touchdown pass. In the final seconds of the game, Stanford had beaten the spread.
Compare that to what happened to the Steelers' fans this week. In the closing seconds, the Chargers, down by one point, started throwing around lateral passes -- like you'd see at the end of a USC/Stanford game, actually. One of these passes ended up on the ground (which is a fumble), and was picked up by the Steelers, and run back into the end zone, for a touchdown. However, as the Steelers lined up for the extra point, the folks up in the replay booth buzzed down to have the officials take another look. Via instant replay, the officiating crew inexplicably determined that one of those laterals was actually an illegal forward pass (which ends the play if the ball hits the ground), and so the Pittsburgh recovery and touchdown never happened. The only problem? It never happened. The replays clearly show that all of the lateral passes were legal (and the possibly illegal one didn't hit the ground), and the touchdown should've counted. During the after-game press conference, Referee Scott Green acknowledged this, and admitted that his crew had made a mistake. However, because the mistake didn't affect the outcome of the game (Pittsburgh won 11-10), the NFL officials' office ruled that to be the final score. The problem? Pittsburgh was favored by four points. Without that touchdown, they don't cover the spread... leading to an unfortunate loss of winnings among Steelers' fans.
OK, enough of that. Let's talk about the NFC East. The 9-1 Giants continue to dominate, casually knocking off Baltimore 30-10 this week, in a game that was really never even close. But further down in the standings, things got a little muddier. In an early game, the Bengals fought the Eagles to a 13-13 tie at the end of regulation (and this one shouldn't have been close... Donovan McNabb threw three interceptions and fumbled the ball once -- four QB turnovers should equal a loss). The overtime period was pretty lame, with the only scoring attempt coming with 8 seconds left on the clock: The Bengals lined up for the 47 yard field goal, and proceeded to miss it. Thus, the game ended in a 13-13 tie, the first tie in the NFL since 2002. This tie is likely to be relevant in the fight for the second NFC wild card.
And then there are the Cowboys. They brought their overrated offense to Washington for the Sunday night game last night, and proceeded to play through a defense-heavy slugfest. At the end of the night, the score was 14-10 Cowboys -- they'd escaped with a narrow win. But, things still aren't really looking up for the boys in blue... this week's return of Tony Romo was supposed to represent the return of offense to Dallas. No such luck.
And Pete... The Washington fans have always done that to the lyrics of Rock 'n Roll part II. Nice of NBC to not mute the microphones.
But... the Washington loss and Philly tie does do some interesting things to the NFC wild card race.
At this point, it seems clear that one of the wild cards is going to go to the #2 team in the NFC South. Whether that's 8-2 Carolina, 7-3 Tampa Bay, or 6-4 Atlanta remains to be seen. (one of these will win the division, and won't need the wild card)
The other wild card is probably going to the NFC East. Assuming the 9-1 Giants are untouchable, that leaves the 6-4 Redskins, 6-4 Cowboys, and the 5-4-1 Eagles. (Though, don't discount the Falcons). And one of those teams will play the Arizona Cardinals, in a first round playoff game, in Arizona. The last time that happened was in 1975, 13 years before the team moved to Arizona.
Here's what the NFC looks like:
Essentially In: NY Giants, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Arizona.
In a three-way-race to get in: Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota (all 5-5 in the NFC North)
Fighting to get in by wild card: Washington, Dallas, Philly, Atlanta.
Eleven teams. Six spots. Six weeks to go.
And the AFC:
Essentially In: Tennessee, Denver.
Fighting to stay in: Pittsburgh
Fighting to get in: Jets, Miami, New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Buffalo
Fooling themselves: San Diego
9-10 teams. Six spots.
And one of those nine could fall off the list tonight...
The Game:
Tonight the 3-6 Cleveland Browns go to chilly, sleety Buffalo to take on the 5-4 Bills. The Bills started this season off in promising fashion, but, like many Buffalo squads of yore, has arrived in week 11 struggling to stay relevant. Buffalo, after many years of poor grass, has settled on the AstroPlay surface, which is the modern evolution of AstroTurf. It is not nearly as well regarded as FieldTurf -- though it looks better on TV.
The Bills must win this game, or they'll join San Diego in "Fooling themselves" territory.
The Line:
The Bills are favored by five. The over/under is 41 and a half.
Last Thursday, the Smart Money won, which brings it to 12-7 for the season, representing a 20.6 ROI. The S&P 500 is down 31.2% over the same time.
Tonight, the Smart Money takes the over... unless it's snowing/sleeting 10 minutes before kickoff -- in which case the Smart Money will abstain due to pending fumbles.
The Bar:
This one is a location pick. We've complained about their prices in the past, but it's very convenient to lots of people, and it's got huge screens and sound. If you make it there at a reasonable hour, you'll be able to enjoy a happy hour special, too.
Plus, they're out-doing Zeke's ("The best sports bar on this corner") in the slogan department: ("The best sports bar in SOMA")
Pete's Tavern.
128 King Street (between 2nd and 3rd).
Spitting Distance from the N and K/T trains.
One block from anything that goes to Caltrain.
Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?