Week 10 — Mon Nov 10 14:41:33 PST 2008

From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Date: Mon Nov 10 14:41:33 PST 2008
Subject: It's Monday...

...and did someone wake up the Baltimore Ravens?


Let's talk playoffs!

AFC East: Patriots/Jets tied at 6-3, Dolphins/Bills tied at 5-4. Anything can happen.

This week, The Patriots hosted the Bills and played to a 20-10 decisive victory, which might set the tone for the division... at least for a few more weeks. Meanwhile, the NY Jets put up 47 points against St. Louis... which might be the worst team in football. The 'fins are still using that crazy offense to much success -- Ricky Williams got a 51-yard TD run out of it this week.

The Pats and Jets play each other in this week's Thursday night game -- it should be a great one.


AFC North: Pittsburgh/Baltimore are tied at 6-3. The 3-6 Browns are probably out of it now.
AFC South: Titans. 9-0. (5-4 Colts are in the wild card race through sheer will alone)

Baltimore has decisively won their last four games, and have established themselves as a very serious playoff contender behind rookie quarterback Joe Flacco. This week, they beat Houston 41-13, and if they can pull off an upset against the Giants next Sunday, their quiet success will no longer be so quiet.

The Colts came from behind to beat the Steelers 24-20 this week. Roethlisberger's two interceptions didn't help. Indianapolis is in contention for a wild card, but either injuries or sheer fatigue may eventually doom them -- they're just not a very deep team.


AFC West: Broncos at 5-4, Chargers at 4-5.

The Chargers squeaked out a 20-19 wins over the hapless Chiefs this week. Denver rolled by Cleveland 34-30. They'll play each other on the 28th of December. The winner of that game is probably playoff-bound.


NFC East: Giants 8-1. (Redskins at 6-3 are hoping for a wild card. Cowboys/Eagles are at 5-4)

Despite being mathematically behind the 9-0 Titans, the Giants are probably the strongest team in football today. Next Sunday night's Washington/Dallas game is game that both teams need to win, so it's going to be a good one.


NFC South: The Panthers lead at 7-2. The Bucs and Falcons are both 6-3.

One of the NFC wild cards is probably going to come from this division. The story here is probably the (under new management) Atlanta Falcons. It seems that the Petrino/Vick stink has cleared, and the era of Ryan/Smith may begin. This week, they beat the Saints 34-20, ending New Orleans' playoff hopes. Watch for the Panthers/Falcons game in two weeks.


NFC North: Bears/Vikings tied at 5-4. Packers still in it at 4-5.

This week's Packers/Vikings game was one for the ages that included two safeties (one on a questionable intentional-grounding call), and ending with a missed 52 yard field goal -- giving the Vikings a 28-27 victory. In truth, though, excitement has been lacking in the NFC North, and while one of these teams will make the playoffs (and it could be any of them), none of them are likely to last past the first round.


NFC West: The Cardinals are 5-3, and have nearly clenched the playoff spot already.

The three other NFC West teams are a combined 6-20. This division is nearly worthless, and this ineptitude is going to allow the Cardinals to win their first division title since 1975 (when they were in St. Louis). Let's call it John McCain's consolation prize (no, you don't get the White House... take the Arizona Cardinals instead).


Which brings us to tonight's game.

The Game:

Tonight, our own 2-6 Forty-Niners go to Scottsdale to take on the 5-3 playoff-bound Arizona Cardinals, on the league's only natural grass field on wheels (and the only grass surface in a retractable-dome stadium). The Tifway 419 surface was installed in 2006 by Evergreen Turf, a locally-owned and operated sod farm. It takes about an hour to roll it out of the stadium and into the adjacent parking lot.

The most interesting aspect of this game is probably going to be the play calling of Mike Singletary. Coming off of the bye-week, J.T. O'Sullivan will go back to warming the bench, and Vernon Davis will likely be on his best behavior. We're likely to see some new offense from our own team, but not enough to win this one.


The Line:

Arizona is favored by 9.5. The over/under is 47.5

Last week, the Smart Money lost. It is now 10-6, representing a 19.3% ROI. The S&P 500 is down a worrisome 25.6% this season.  This week, the Smart Money takes the Over and the Cardinals.


The Bar:

OK. So I promised that I'd make it out this week. And I intend to keep that promise, but not tonight. Tonight's game isn't going to be very good, while the Thursday game is likely to be a great (and since it's on NFL network, lots of SF Comcast customers won't be able to see it).

So... instead of gathering tonight, let's gather on Thursday.

Watch this space for more details.

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