Week 7 — Mon, 22 Oct 2007

From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...

...and are the goalposts wider in Houston, or something?

This was a crazy week in the NFL. There was only one game where both teams went in with winning records. Many double-digit leads were blown. The Dolphins even scored 28 points. But nothing was quite as bizarre as the game in Houston.

First, let's go back two weeks to the last game played in Houston, when the Texans beat Miami 22-19, while only gaining 74 running yards. Credit goes to Texan kicker, Kris Brown, who booted five field goals, three of which were from more than 50 yards -- tying the NFL record.

This week, the Tennessee Titans went to Houston, and brought their extremely consistent kicker Rob Bironas along for the ride. Little did they know the absurdity that would follow. For three quarters, the respective defenses owned this game, forcing five combined turnovers through the first 45 minutes of play. Neither offense scored a touchdown until well into the second quarter. But Tennessee was winning the game of field position -- while most of the Texan drives were ending with turnovers or punts, most of the Titans' drives were ending with field goals -- Five of them during the first half alone.

At the end of three quarters, the game seemed to be completely over. The score was 32-7 Tennessee, and the Texans' offense still hadn't scored (the touchdown came on a defensive fumble recovery that was run back). The home team crowd started heading to the parking lot, where they could cook their own bratwursts and have another six-pack for the road (this is Houston, after all). And then the fourth quarter started, and it looked as if some of the Titans defense had headed for the parking lot as well -- the Titans D completely fell apart. One minute and twelve seconds later, Texan journeyman backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels finally finds the end zone. Then the defense holds (and Tennessee punts, finally, pinning the Texans on their own two yard line). Somehow, Rosenfels does it again -- in just 9 plays, the Texans are back in the endzone, and it's a 10 point game - 32 to 22). The guys sucking down Lone Stars in the parking lot started wishing they were enjoying a $10 Budweiser inside. The guys on the field continue to kick the ball at each other -- and then one of the statisticians noticed something. With 3:49 left in the game, Rob Bironas kicked his seventh field goal of the game -- tying a record held by four kickers from all eras of the NFL -- and making it a 13 point game.

Apparently, the Titans defense and special teams celebrated this feat, because they were nearly absent from the field for the next three minutes -- Rosenfels comes out and casually moves the team down the field, the Texans kick and recover an onside kick (twice, because the first one had a yellow hankie involved), and then Sage chucks a 53-yard hail-Mary, and whaddyaknow, Andre Davis manages to come down with it in the end zone -- to giving the Texans the lead, with 57 seconds to go in the game. But, this was not going to be Houston's afternoon. It was going to be Rob Bironas's -- because during those 57 seconds, the Titans moved the ball all the way to the 11 yard line, setting him up for his eighth field goal of the day -- which he made, to beat the Texans, set a few records, and cover the spread.

The records? No kicker has ever kicked eight field goals in one game. No kicker has ever scored so many points (26, with the two extra points -- Hello Fantasy players!) No team has ever scored 29 points in the fourth quarter, and still lost the game (In 1980 the Jets scored 28, before losing 31-28 to the, ahem, Houston Oilers -- who are now the Tennessee titans))

The Texans go to 3-4, and are headed for San Diego. The Titans are 4-2, and host Oakland next week.

The Miami Dolphins are starting to smell like Hákarl curing in the summer time (look it up). Everyone knew it was going to be ugly this week when they hosted New England (and drew a 16.5 point spread), but this game was over in the second quarter, and despite the 21 points that the Dolphins scored in the 4th, the 49-28 score tells you all you need to know. The Patriots have clearly established themselves as the team to beat in the NFL, but this week's game may have revealed their weakness: their shallow bench. Tom Brady took a seat on the bench twice during this game, and each of the backups that replaced him looked absolutely horrid (Matt Cassel threw two passes, one was incomplete, the other was intercepted). Bostonians better hope that Brady stays healthy. The Patriots go to 7-0. The Dolphins go to a disappointing 0-7 (joining St. Louis in the bottom of the standings).

Peter King over at SI.com had an interesting commentary this morning comparing the Dolphins and Patriots, specifically their ability to make good draft choices -- the kind of draftees that become veteran, franchise players. In the 1998-2003 drafts, the Dolphins drafted 59 players. None of them were playing for the Dolphins yesterday. Over the same time, the Pats drafted 48 -- Nine of them were playing on Sunday. I agree with Peter that these 5 to 10 year veterans are what makes a team, and that Miami's inability to find these players, even when they have favorable draft picks, is a big factor in their 0-7 record.

King is probably one of the most intelligent analysts who's writing about the NFL today, and he's got incredible access to players. He has easily overtaken Dr. Z. as the most useful thing about Sports Illustrated. Check his stuff out here.

Next week, the Pats host the Redskins, and the Dolphins host the Giants, in London, England. You'll be hearing more about this, and what it means for the NFL and NFL Europe next week.

The Giants are making the NFC East look interesting again, which is to say that we're about to see whether Dallas is for real, or if their 6-1 record represents an easy schedule (Miami, St.Louis, Buffalo, Chicago, Minnesota?). This week, the Giants hosted our own San Francisco 49ers, and beat them 33-15 on defense alone. The Giants forced four turnovers, and that made all the difference. This is New York's fifth win in a row, and their 5-2 record is looking pretty good. The Niners fall to 2-4, and unless they can do something about their offense, it's going to be a long, long season. The Giants are headed for Wembley Stadium. The Niners host the struggling New Orleans Saints (who beat the even more struggling Falcons this week).

But wait, isn't there another undefeated team? Yes. Yes, there is.

The Game:

Tonight the 5-0 Indianapolis Colts go to Jacksonville, Florida (geographically, the largest city in the US) to take on the Jaguars on the Tifnay 419 hybrid Bermuda grass inside of Alltel Stadium. Alltel stadium is one of the few stadiums in the country that is configured to have more seating for College sports (84,000+) than for an NFL game (68,000+).

The Colts are coming off of their Bye week, and despite their undefeated record, they are clearly the #2 team in the league. The Jags are a better team than most people give them credit for, and they've quietly rolled to a 4-1 record, behind a defense that hasn't allowed more than 17 points a game. The Colts need this win to show that they can keep their momentum through their off week. The Jags want this win to show a national audience that they're among the best teams this year (and to show that their last defeat of the Colts in Jacksonville was no fluke). This game is likely to be a very good one.

The Line:

Indianapolis is favored by three. The over/under is 45.

Last week the Smart Money won. It is now 4-2, representing a 27.3% ROI. Over the same period of time the S&P 500 gained 2.1%

This week the Smart Money takes the under.

The Bar:

We've been to this place more than once before -- but every time we've gone, it's been under new management. Last year, it was Ted's. This year, it's called Overtime. It's still next to the health clinic, the illegal limousine service, and just around the corner from the Hall of Justice. Expect to see the usual mix of hookers, cops, johns and hipsters. Make sure you know which one is offering to buy you a beer.

Overtime Sports Bar & Grill
398 7th Street @Harrison
Near the 12, 27, 47 and 19 busses.
Four aromatic blocks down 7th street from the Civic Center muni.

Kickoff is at 5:30.
See you there?