Week 10 — Mon, 12 Nov 2007

From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...

...and the Miami Dolphins are the last winless team in the league.

Is it too early to talk about 0-16?

Unfortunately, my time is rather limited today, so this one's going to be a short wrapup, focusing on the slightly less fuzzy playoff picture:

AFC:
Essentially In: New England (9-0), Pittsburgh (7-2)
Probably In: Indianapolis (7-2)
Essentially Out: Miami (0-9), NY Jets (1-8), Oakland (2-7)

Over the next few weeks, the AFC South and West will be ones to watch...

This week, the Colts lost to the Chargers 23-21. Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions, and Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals (including a 29 yarder with 1:31 to go that would've put the Colts ahead). You can't win with mistakes like that, even against the Chargers.

This puts the Colts at 7-2 in the AFC South. Right behind them are Jacksonville (6-3) and Tennessee (6-3). The win puts the Chargers at 5-4, which is enough for first place in the AFC West, behind Denver (4-5) and Kansas City (4-5).

Next week, Kansas City goes to Indy, San Diego goes to Jacksonville, and Tennessee goes to Denver on Monday Night. How's that for non-division games with potential playoff implications?

NFC:
Essentially In: Dallas (8-1), Green Bay (8-1)
Probably In: NY Giants (6-3)
Essentially Out: St Louis (1-8), Minnesota (3-6)

This week's NFC game was the Dallas/Giants matchup yesterday afternoon. After a 17-17 first half, the Cowboys defense took over in the second half, keeping the Giants out of the endzone entirely. The game ended 31-20. This win pretty much wraps up the NFC East for Dallas -- they're two games ahead, and have gone 3-0 in the division, including a 2-0 sweep of the Giants. Dallas hosts the struggling Redskins next week, and will probably continue their NFC East dominance. New York goes to Detroit, in a game that might end up being the tiebreaker for the NFC Wild Card race.

Again, it's the South and West divisions where things are still up in the air. In the NFC South, Tampa Bay (5-4) is on top, with Carolina and New Orleans right behind at 4-5. Even the Falcons' 3-6 record isn't bad enough to take them out of the running in this division. Next week, Tampa Bay goes to Atlanta, in a game that could either end Atlanta's playoff hopes or throw the whole division into parity.

And then there's the sad story of the NFC West. At the top of this steaming heap is Seattle, with a meager 4-4 record. The Arizona Cardinals are behind them at 4-5, with San Francisco and St Louis holding down the bottom at 2-6 and 1-8 respectively. The amazing thing is, one of these teams is going to make the playoffs.

And tonight, we get to see two of them play each other.

The Game:
Tonight, our very own 2-6 San Francisco 49ers go to Seattle to take on the 4-4 Seahawks on the FieldTurf of Qwest Field.

The Seahawks were first introduced to FieldTurf while playing at the University of Washington's stadium during the 2000-2001 season (when the current stadium was under construction). They liked it so much that they put it in the new stadium -- the first in the NFL to use it.

Neither Seattle nor San Francisco is terribly good football team this year, but as I mentioned earlier, they're both playing in a weak division. San Francisco is a team that hasn't won a game since the 16th of September, but they're only 2 games out of first place in their division. Seattle is trying to hold on to a winning record... they've lost three of their last four games, and are missing the two most productive members of their offense. This might be one of the ugliest games in recent memory. But, it also might be one of the better ones.

The Line:
The Seahawks are favored by 9.5. The over/under is 39.

Last week, the Smart Money's over bet was a winner by the end of the first half. It is now 8-2, for a ROI of 52.7%. The S&P 500 has gone down 2.48% in the same time.

The Bar:
Since this is a 49ers game, we're bound to get an enthusiastic crowd, but we need to go somewhere kind of big. We tried this one once earlier in the season, but it was a poorly-timed choice, because there was a Giants game across the street. So, this time we're trying again.

Pete's Tavern
128 King Street
Across from the ballpark. Steps from the N and K/T trains.
Just far enough away from OracleWorld.

Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?

---