Week 14—Mon, 12 Dec 2005

From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...

...and while there were exciting, down-to-the-wire games, ultimately the playoff picture has barely changed.

The Playoff Situation:
AFC
In: 13-0 Indianapolis
Essentially in:  10-3 Denver+, 8-5 New England*
Likely to get in:  10-3 Cincinnati*, 9-4 Jacksonville
Fighting to get in:  8-5 Pittsburgh, 8-5 San Diego, 8-5 Kansas City
Fooling Themselves: 6-7 Miami

NFC
In: 11-2 Seattle
Essentially In: 9-4 Chicago+, 9-4 Carolina
Likely to get in: 9-4 Tampa Bay
Fighting to get in: 8-5 Dallas, 9-4 NY Giants, 8-5 Minnesota, 7-5 Atlanta
Fooling Themselves: 7-6 Washington

A * means that this team can get in by winning their next game.
A + means that this team can get in by winning their next game, and watching another team lose their next game.


The NFC East was nearly flipped over this Sunday, with all four teams playing 4:00 games.  Late in the 4th quarters, Dallas and The Giants were losing, and the Redskins and Eagles were winning.  Had the games ended there, it would've opened up a brief glimmer of hope for Redskins fans worldwide.  (Remember, the 'Skins beat Dallas twice this year, which means that Washington would win a tiebreaker with Dallas).  Boy, it was strange to be cheering for Kansas City and Philly.

Instead, Dallas scored a touchdown in the final seconds to beat Kansas City 31-28, and the Giants dominated Philly in overtime before winning 26-23 with a field goal.  At least the Redskins held on to beat the Arizona Cardinals 17-13.  All three were good games, and my remote control got quite a workout.

New York is still ahead in the NFC East, one game ahead of Dallas, two ahead of Washington.  #2 in this division may be a wild card contender, but it'll be an uphill battle.

Elsewhere in the NFC (and earlier in the day) Tampa Bay beat Carolina 20-10 to re-take control of the NFC South.  Both of these teams have 9-4 records, but Tampa Bay wins the tiebreaker because they have a better division record.  These two teams will most likely both go to the playoffs, one as a wild card, one as the division winner.  It's too early to tell which is which.

The struggling, but still very much in the running, Pittsburgh Steelers beat the playoff-bound Chicago Bears in the snow, which keeps the Steelers hopes alive.  Pittsburgh is a good team that's suffered through injuries, weather, and just dumb luck this season, and they're probably the best of the teams that are duking it out for the wild card.  That doesn't mean they're going to get it.  

Minnesota continues to surprise.  This week, they knocked off St. Louis 27-13.  This ends the Rams playoff hopes (and I'll bet that there are about to be a few openings on the offensive coaching staff), and actually puts the Vikings somewhat solidly in the running for the last NFC wild card (assuming that the first one is going to either Carolina or Tampa Bay).  Minnesota has won their last 6 games and 7 of their last 8 -- in this game of momentum, that's a pretty big deal.

The Colts won again, this time beating Jacksonville 26-18, but it was never really close (it was 23-3 at the end of the third).  See also: inertia.  These teams are likely to see each other again, in Indy in the postseason.  

Can the Colts actually go 16-0?  Possibly.  It seems unlikely though, considering that this week's win gives Indianapolis the top seed in the playoffs -- including a first-round Bye, and home field advantage all the way through.  The remaining regular season games are completely meaningless to Indianapolis, except for that U word.  Typically, a coach would start resting players now... so everyone is healthy for the next game that counts (which is on January 15th).  Watch for misplaced betting lines on the next two Colts games.

Which brings us to tonight's game.

Tonight, the displaced New Orleans Saints go to Atlanta's Georgia Dome to take on the Falcons on the Fieldturf.  Atlanta seems a bit temperate to have a cable-supported dome, but I guess they don't draw quite the caliber of shirtless fan that shows up in Green Bay when it's 14 degrees outside.

The Saints haven't been a playoff prayer all year.  Atlanta is fighting hard for a wild card, but is probably going to fall short regardless.  To stay a contender, the Falcons must win tonight.

In truth, the gameplay tonight is likely to be so-so, as neither of these teams are spectacular.  But they've both got something to prove.  The Saints want to win on a National event like Monday Night, in an effort to show the rest of the country that they don't deserve to be banished to that football wasteland, Los Angeles.  The Falcons, who still seem to believe that they're a decent team, want to prove that they're still in the running for the postseason.

It's bound to be a spirited, if not technically proficient, game of football.

The Line:

Tonight, the Atlanta Falcons are favored by 10.  The over/under is 44.5.

The Smart Money, which is now 11-12, and eying .500, takes the Over and the Falcons.

The Bar:

We've been threatening to visit all year.  And since this is the last Monday Night that Denise and I will be in town this season, it's clearly time.

Please be kind to the tourists, and remember that the 14% San Francisco Hotel Tax is funding most of The City's arts grants.

Hooters
353 Jefferson St (b/w Jones and Levenworth)
steps from where the F train turns around.
within a block of the 10, 47, 30 and the Powell/Hyde cable car.

Kickoff is at 6:00, but given our location this week, we suggest you arrive a little early.  

See you there?

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