Week 13 — Mon, 5 Dec 2005

From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...

...and the playoffs are just about decided, even though there are four weeks to go.

Congratulations to the Colts and Seahawks, who both clinched playoff berths this week... Indy by winning, and Seattle by watching St. Louis lose.

The Playoff Situation:
AFC
In: 12-0 Indianapolis
Essentially in:  9-3 Denver
Theirs to lose: 7-5 New England, 9-3 Cincinnati
Likely to be In: 9-3 Jacksonville, 8-4 San Diego
Fighting to get in: 7-5 Pittsburgh, 8-4 Kansas City
Fooling Themselves: 5-7 Miami

NFC
In: 9-2 Seattle
Essentially In: 9-3 Chicago, 9-3 Carolina
Likely to get in: 8-4 Tampa Bay
Fighting to get in: 7-5 Dallas, 8-4 NY Giants, 7-5 Atlanta, 7-5 Minnesota (!!)
Fooling Themselves: 6-6 Washington


So, what happened this week to bring everything into such focus?

Dallas went to New Jersey and got beaten by the Giants 17-10.  After starting the game with a 17 point lead, the Giants handed it over to their defense, who managed to hold the Cowboys to 206 overall yards.  This win puts Giants in sole control of the NFC East, and it give them a tiebreaker advantage over Dallas... The Giants are now in control of their playoff destiny.  If they win two more games, they're in.  Upcoming games include Philly, KC, Washington and Oakland.  The Cowboys, on the other hand, are now on the outside looking in.  Their current 7-5 record is barely in the running for a wild card, so if they keep losing, they're out.

Washington beat St Louis 24-9 in St. Louis.  This ended the Rams playoff hopes (and gave Seattle a playoff spot).  Washington is technically still in the running, if they keep winning, and Dallas and the Giants lose a few... but those are just a few too many ifs.

Tampa Bay comfortably defeated the displaced Saints in Baton Rouge 10-3.  Ronde Barber intercepted Saints passer Aaron Brooks three times (of four total interceptions).  With a stat like that, it's surprising that the score was only 10-3.  The Buccaneers' 8-4 record puts them one game ahead of all other NFC wild-card contenders, and one game behind current NFC South leader, Carolina.

Carolina easily defeated Atlanta, because they completely shut down Michael Vick's running abilities.  Vick is, at best, an average passer, and if a defense can eliminate his threat as a runner, they'll have no trouble beating the Falcons.  Carolina is alone at the front of the NFC South, and if they don't get in by winning the division, they're in a very good position for a wild card.

Atlanta's still mathematically in the running, with a 7-5 record... but they're slumping, and there are plenty of good NFC teams this year.  The  Falcons are going to end up out of the playoffs, unless disaster strikes the rest of the NFC.

Reappearing on the playoff list this week is the Minnesota Vikings, who have won their last five games in a row (including this week in Detroit).  They're still two games behind  9-3 Chicago in the NFC, but they're still somewhat in the running for a wild card.  In truth, their chances are slim, but last week they seemed to be zero.

The Bengals Bandwagon keeps on rolling.  This week they beat Pittsburgh in a 38-31 shootout, which brings the Bengals to 9-3.  Yes, by winning their ninth game, Cincinnati has guaranteed itself a winning season -- for the first time since 1990 (which would be the pinnacle of the 1988-91 career of Ickey Woods).  In fact, fans who were watching closely, got to see a rendition of the Ickey Shuffle -- performed by Steelers receiver Hines Ward.  With this win, the Bengals are in control of the AFC North and will almost certainly make the postseason.  With the loss, the Steelers fall to 7-5, and now have to fight hard to get a wild card.

Which brings us to tonight's game...

The Game:
Tonight, the 9-2 and already-in-the-playoffs Seattle Seahawks go to Philadelphia to take on the 5-6 Eagles on the natural Kentucky Bluegrass field of Lincoln Financial Field (which has been augmented with a DD GrassMaster system, but at a lower plastic-to-real ratio than most GrassMaster fields).  Snow is expected.

To Seattle, the rest of the season is about protecting their Best-in-the-NFC record, which would give them home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  For the Eagles, another loss will take them entirely out of the playoff picture (not that they're really in it).  

Given the weather, the Monday Night Factor, and the teams involved, it should be a fairly decent game.

The Line:
Seattle is favored by 3.5.  The over/under is 40.

Last week, the Smart Money regressed, right alongside the Steelers defense.  It is now 9-12.  Tonight, it takes Seattle and the Over.


The Bar:
We return to an old favorite...

Kezar Pub.
770 Stanyan (near Waller)
Steps from the 71
Within a few blocks of the 7, 33, 43, and N-Judah


Kickoff is at 6:00.  Hope you make it out.

Denise and I won't be making it, because tonight's her birthday, and we've got other plans.  

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