Week 15 — 20 Dec 2004

From: Jeff
To: mnf@fat.doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...

...and if I hear The Little Drummer Boy one more time, I'm going to have to kick someone's ass. Can't it be January yet?

This was the week that the playoff picture finally came into sharp focus. Congratulations go to San Diego, Indianapolis and Green Bay for getting in this week. So what does it look like now?:

AFC:
In: Pittsburgh, New England, San Diego, Indianapolis.
Essentially in: NY Jets.

Still fighting: Jacksonville, Baltimore, Denver, Buffalo. One of these teams will get in. They're all 8-6.

The Jets upcoming games are vs. New England and at St. Louis. They can get in by winning either game. There are a number of other scenarios involving losses by the 8-6 teams that will put the Jets in.

The 8-6 teams' remaining schedules look like this:

  		 Dec 26th	 Jan 2nd
Jacksonville:  	vs. Houston	at Oakland
Baltimore: 	at Pittsb'gh	vs Miami
Denver: 	at Tennessee(*) vs Indianapolis
Buffalo:	at San Fran	vs Pittsburgh

(*)--Christmas Day, 5:30pm PST.

With those teams and those schedules... Jacksonville looks to be in the best position to get the remaining wild-card, but don't discount Baltimore. Denver's been self-destructing lately, and the momentum's against them... and the Bills... well, at least their fans are used to disappointment.

NFC:
In: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Green Bay
Probably In: Minnesota, Seattle
Fighting to get in: St. Louis, Carolina, New Orleans.

Minnesota gets in with another win. Their upcoming games are this Friday afternoon vs Green Bay and Jan 2nd in Washington. It would be suprising if they lost both of these.

One of Seattle and St. Louis will get in as the NFC West Champion. Currently, Seattle is 7-7 and St. Louis is 6-8. If they finish tied (8-8 or even 7-9), then St. Louis will get the spot.

Seattle:  	vs. Arizona	vs. Atlanta
St. Louis:	vs. Philly(&)	vs. NY Jets

(&) - Next Week's monday night game.

Considering Seattle's lead and St. Louis's schedule, it seems likely that the Seahawks are going to win the NFC West.

As to the wild cards... Assuming that Minnesota gets one of them, and that Seattle wins the NFC West, that leaves three teams fighting. All are 6-8.

 		 Dec 26th	 Jan 2nd
St. Louis:	vs. Philly(&)	vs. NY Jets
Carolina:	at Tampa Bay	vs. New Orleans
New Orleans:	vs. Atlanta	at Carolina

The Saints seem an unlikely candidate. Compared to the other teams in the running, they're just not all that good. St. Louis has a difficult schedule. I think there's a big opening for the Panthers to finish strong and make the postseason.

If somehow Seattle doesn't win the NFC West, then chances are good that the Seahawks will get the wild card (they've got a one-game lead over the other contenders). That would leave the Panthers and Saints on the outside looking in.

It's also notable in NFC-land that T.O. is going to be out for the rest of the season. He sprained his ankle, and it is going to require surgery. The Eagles play well enough without him that I doubt that he'll be missed.

Tonight... we wish we had a game.

Tonight the 12-1 New England Patriots are going to Miami to play the 2-11 Dolphins on the natural grass of Pro Player Stadium. Due to the frequent torrential downpours in Miami, Pro Player has installed a Prescription Athletic Turf system, which is essentially a multimillion dollar hydroponic system for sod. Thanks to drainage provided by gravel and screens, and a system of pumps and pipes, groundskeepers can have the field dry enough to play on within 30 minutes after a monsoon.

The grass is watered and fed from underneath... you will never see a sprinkler there.

So... what happens when a 12-1 team takes on a 2-11 team on grass worth more than most New Jersey sportsbooks? You'll just have to show up to find out.

The Line:

New England is favored by 10.5. The over/under is 43.5

The Smart Money won pretty comfortably last week, taking it to 9-7, and putting it in the black for the first time all season.

This week, the Smart Money takes the Over, and seriously considers Miami. The New England secondary is rather weak right now, and I think AJ Feely is going to capitalize on that. The Patriots are going to win, but I think it's more likely to be a victory by three than by thirteen.

The Bar:

Tonight, by request, we're going back to a place that we've been to in past seasons, though we understand that they're now much better equipped for football watching than they used to be... complete with a big-screen up in the loft at the back of the place.

And they have $12 pitchers brewed on-site.

The 21st Amendment 563 Second Street @South Park

Steps from the 10 Bus 2 blocks from the N Judah Reasonably close to the 30,15,45 and 91 busses (third/fourth st)

Kickoff is at 6:00 See you there?

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